People
that would bug out need to ask themselves this question:
Is
a successful long term bug out without a specific, prepared-in-advance, secure
location even possible?
Let's
think about the practicality of bugging out.
While watching YouTube videos I have heard a great many people say they
are simply going to bug out upon the occurrence of a catastrophic event. People should really re-think their options
before embarking on that solution well before the situation arises. The available acreage people think they would
be able to bug out to is not infinite.
Actually, it would be almost impossible to reach the large, open
national forests in the Midwest from most major cities in a bugging out
situation. It would take months to get
to the forests on foot. The highways and
roads would be impassable from disabled vehicles, probably most of which will
have simply run out of gas. The open
land is in the middle of the country, but even so, most of it is private
property owned by fellow citizens. You
can't just go and take it over. You
wouldn't allow that if it were yours. I
suspect that many people trying to reach that area would most likely be dead
from ambush for their supplies, or near death from thirst or drinking bad water
within the first thirty days of the trek.
Bugging
out will not be a viable solution for survival during a real SHTF event. The areas surrounding the cities is where the
highest deaths will occur, from trespassers and aggressors fleeing from the
city and being shot and killed by rightful landowners defending their families
and property from the mob mentality. It
will not be a free-for-the-taking situation.
There will be serious consequences for all your actions.
I
have made some calculations to get a feel for the number of people that would
leave the cities in a bug out situation.
I share these calculations with you not for correction or rebuttal, but
for consideration. It's all variable at
best anyway. Even in a national event,
let's say that only 15% of the population chooses to bug out from the largest
289 cities that have populations over 100 thousand people. That would be 12,853,825 people bugging out
in a national event. That's almost 13
million people going to where exactly? I
also believe that people would be so fearful during such an event, that some
would just go running out the door and down the street with no preparations
whatsoever other than the clothes on their back. Perhaps they will figure on just finding
something to eat on the way to wherever they're going. Which is nowhere. They're just going.
Where
do people think there exists such a vast expanse of open and cleared, un-owned
land anywhere within 200 miles of these cities that wouldn't be vigorously
defended by the legal landowners against millions of fleeing people across the
country? Even in a regionalized event,
there would be thousands and thousands of fleeing people. Where would they go? In my opinion, to their doom.
The
15% of people I'm talking about potentially bugging out is almost thirteen
million people from only 289
cities. That equates to only 4% of the
total continental US population bugging out.
Just 4%! Suppose people from
smaller cities decide to bug out as well.
There is nowhere for all those people to bug out to! There simply isn't enough free land to
accommodate them all. If you went to the
woods, you would be able to stand in one place and see tents and shelters as
far as the eye could see. Where do you
think all the deer and wildlife would be?
They would be long gone except for a few stragglers that would be killed
off in a few hours. What then? How are those 72 hours of MRE's working out
for you in your bug out bag at three weeks into this bug out decision?
This
calculation is intended to be fuel for promoting in-depth examinations of the
proposed actions to be taken during any major negative event, be it man-made or
natural. You are free to disagree with
me, but just think it all out. That's
all I want people to do for themselves.
THINK. These extreme conditions
even apply to the smaller regionalized events that don't affect the entire
country. These considerations and
possibilities are not intended for evacuation for personal protection from
hurricanes, winter storms, wildfires and the like. That is not the same as bugging out in my
opinion. You would just be leaving for a
few days and then coming back after the bad weather passed.
Now
the sum of 306,675,006 people represents the reported 2010 Census of 100% of
the population of the contiguous
United States.
The
population of the top 289 major U.S. cities is 85,692,164. This population total is located within the
25,967 square miles that comprise U.S. cities with populations that exceed
100K.
I
used 15% of the population from these 289 cities for my calculations. I think that is a reasonable number, but I
also think that in a serious event it could realistically be much higher than
that. You can use whatever variable
percentage you think it might be to represent the number of people in the 289
largest cities in the U.S. that would be bugging out.
The
figure of 220,982,842 represents the remaining continental U.S. population
number that may or may not bug out.
There
would be 104 people per square mile theoretically distributed in the
continental United States according to the results of the 2010 census. That
includes high mountains, deserts and wide open plains subject to incredibly
cold winter temperatures. It does not
include the surface area square miles of lakes and rivers.
Now
for some calculations:
43,560
S.F. equals 1 Acre
27,878,400
S.F. equals one square mile.
27,878,400
S.F. divided by 104 = 268,062 S.F. per person
268,062
S.F. per person divided by 43,560 S.F. per acre equals 6.2 acres per person.
Therefore,
there is 6.2 Acres allotted per person based on 2010 census results with 104
people theoretically being distributed per square mile in the continental U.S. Modernsurvivalblog recommends 30 acres for
self sufficiency. So a family of 5 might
make it IF you already had the land.
However, if you didn't already live on it, when you got to it, you
should expect squatters to be occupying your bug out location, and your food
storage would have already been completely ransacked. What do you do then? Are you going to try to take it back like in
the movies? If successful, are you then
going to defend it like all the landowners will have defended theirs when you
were trying to cross their land to get to yours? What if the squatters win? Time for a reality check! Bugging out exposes you to innumerable bad
encounters that may take your life and the lives of your family members before
you even get to your supposed safe bug out location. I believe that if you don't currently live in
your bug out location but have one, then you have prepared it and its contents
for someone else's use.
With
this density of bugged-out population in the countryside, when the
"Rambo" mentalities within your line of sight start shooting at the
wildlife, you better be lying down on the ground. I believe that there is going to be a great
number of accidental shootings due to close proximity with the rest of the
relocated population. Maybe it would not
be accidental so they can take your land or food storage. If one of your family members was shot in a
situation like that, would you think, "Oh gosh! An accident!", or more likely,
"We're being attacked!" and start firing back, but firing back at
whom? Your actions are likely to cause
another accident, and before long the entire area would be a war zone. Tensions will be extremely high and nerves
will be frayed. Any way you look at it,
it will be a terrible situation to be in.
It
would be much uglier in the country than in the cities because after the
initial die-off in the big cities, the predator population would leave the
cities and would be currycombing the countryside after calculating that there
is far more return out in the country than in a city because in the country the
people were really prepared. The
predators will be meaner and more violent when they are starving. Weapons, food and water... they'll take it all, or willingly die trying
to get yours.
I
believe the best plan is to store all you can in an organized manner, and then
quietly stay put for a month or two.
Re-evaluate thoroughly after that time and then make new decisions based
on sound information.
There
is good survival information at:
http://modernsurvivalblog.com/retreat-living/30-acres-for-self-sufficiency/
Whenever
the event does happen, the multitudes will run amuck but the calm and prepared
people will stand and survive, successfully removing the threat of those who
would harm them and their families in order to plunder their resources.
Think
about it.
Thanks
for letting me share this with you.
Bob
Hotaling